The U.S. government remains partially shutdown as of November 12, 2025, coinciding with the start of the open enrollment period under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplaces, which began Nov. 1.
Meanwhile, enhanced premium tax credits (PTCs) are set to expire Dec. 31, 2025, unless Congress moves to extend them.
We’ll examine what’s at stake amid the shutdown and how it could affect ACA compliance.
What’s at Stake in the Shutdown
Because of the shutdown, many federal workers, including those at agencies involved with ACA marketplaces and related programs, have been furloughed or placed on hiatus. Although some workers have been temporarily recalled to support open enrollment operations, uncertainty remains about the full staffing and system operations. For example, taxpayer assistance centers have been closed during the shutdown.
Additional key items include:
- The open enrollment period began Nov. 1 for many states and the federal marketplace.
- Enhanced premium tax credits that have helped reduce premiums for millions are scheduled to expire at year end.
- Insurers have incorporated both scenarios into their rate filings, assuming either extension or expiration.
If credits expire without extension, many enrollees may face significantly higher premiums, reduced affordability, or drop coverage.
Implications for Employers Heading Into 2026
1. Increased enrollment volatility
As open enrollment begins, individuals may shift from employer plans to marketplace plans or vice versa, depending on affordability. If subsidies shrink, some employees may seek employer coverage again. If PTCs are not extended, however, there is a decreased penalty risk, as PTCs serve as triggers for the IRS to identify potential ACA non-compliance.
2. Pressure on affordability calculations
If PTCs expire, more individuals will rely on employer-sponsored plans for coverage. Employers will need to recalculate affordability under Safe Harbor methods, because employees may perceive greater reliance on employer coverage when marketplace options become more expensive.
3. Deadline and reporting preparation
Even with the public policy uncertainty, employers should continue preparing for the 2026 tax year filings. That includes verifying data for full-time employees, checking coverage offers, and testing the forms (1094-C / 1095-C) to avoid last-minute compliance gaps.
What Employers Should Do Now
- Monitor legislative developments. The government shutdown complicates negotiations over the PTC extension. Keep an eye on Congress for whether credits are extended.
- Run scenario modeling. Simulate filings assuming both extension and expiration of credits, to understand how employee coverage decisions might shift.
- Validate employee data. Clean up data in payroll, HR, and benefits systems now to be ready for year-end filings.
- Assess penalty risk. Use penalty risk assessment tools to identify areas where affordability or coverage offers might not meet requirements given changing subsidy conditions.
- Prepare for filing season. Even if the credits are extended, file defensibly for 2025 and prepare for 2026 filings, so you’re ready regardless of policy outcome.
How Trusaic Can Help Employers Navigate Uncertainty
Trusaic’s ACA Compliance Solutions help employers stay ahead in uncertain environments by offering:
- Real-time eligibility and coverage tracking
- Scenario planning for different subsidy and enrollment outcomes
- Penalty risk assessment to identify compliance gaps before the IRS issues letters or penalty calculations
- Integration across payroll, HR, and benefits systems to ensure consistent data
- Audit-ready documentation and filings for both federal and state requirements
The combination of a government shutdown and looming expiration of premium tax credits makes open enrollment in November 2025 particularly challenging. Employers should treat this period as an early warning: compliance risks may increase as employees respond to shifting subsidy and coverage options.
Proactive preparation now will help ensure you are ready for the 2026 filing season, even in an uncertain policy environment.
Schedule a demo today to see how Trusaic can support you through this volatile compliance landscape.